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2026: The year AI’s impact becomes impossible to ignore

05 Jan 2026
PostAuthors object (17537)
Nick EvansPartnerTechnology Team
PostAuthors object (17538)
Ben RogoffPartnerTechnology Team

We believe artificial intelligence (AI) is the next general-purpose technology and a rare example of discontinuous technology change around which all industries will be reshaped. AI demand is accelerating and outpacing supply despite material AI infrastructure investments – we expect this dynamic to continue into 2026 as we believe we are in the early phases of a major infrastructure investment cycle with significant upside to consensus capital expenditure estimates.

We do not believe we are in an AI bubble.

After a top-heavy 2024, during which the largest technology stocks dominated returns, the market saw a change in leadership in 2025 as the Magnificent Seven and market-cap-weighted technology indices no longer prove as good a conduit for AI. This has led to a richer environment for stock selection, which we expect to persist into 2026.

AI demand is accelerating and outpacing supply despite material AI infrastructure investments – we expect this dynamic to continue into 2026.

Rapid technological change plays to our strength and experience as one of the largest technology investment teams globally, with 11 dedicated portfolio managers/analysts. Eight years managing a dedicated AI fund has also shaped our investment perspective and focus while giving us invaluable insights.

We are excited about the application of AI within our own investment process and intend to use this to further differentiate and ‘turbocharge’ our approach.

While we expect our bullish outlook to be periodically tested by bouts of volatility, we remain AI maximalists. Discontinuous technological progress is difficult to grasp and even harder to predict. AI is advancing at extraordinary speed; we expect 2026 to be the year when the capabilities of these models become unmistakable and the impact of AI increasingly impossible for investors across all sectors to ignore.

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Global Technology

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All opinions and estimates in this document constitute the best judgement of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital.  Polar Capital is not rendering legal or accounting advice through this material; viewers should contact their legal and accounting professionals for such information. This document does not constitute a prospectus, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any other instruments, which may be discussed in it. This is not a financial promotion.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12 months is available upon request.  This document is not a personal recommendation and you should consider whether you can rely upon any opinion or statement contained in this document without seeking further advice tailored for your own circumstances. This document is only made available to professional clients and eligible counterparties.  Shares in the fund should only be purchased by professional investors.  The law restricts distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions; therefore, persons into whose possession this presentation comes should inform themselves about and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. Issued by Polar Capital LLP and Polar Capital (Europe) SAS. Polar Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the United States’ Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registered address: 16 Palace Street, London SW1E 5JD. Polar Capital (Europe) SAS is authorised and regulated by France’s Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF). Registered address: 18 Rue de Londres, Paris 75009, France.

Technology|05 Jan 2026

2026: The year AI’s impact becomes impossible to ignore

None
None
Nick Evans
Partner, Technology Team
None
Ben Rogoff
Partner, Technology Team

We believe artificial intelligence (AI) is the next general-purpose technology and a rare example of discontinuous technology change around which all industries will be reshaped. AI demand is accelerating and outpacing supply despite material AI infrastructure investments – we expect this dynamic to continue into 2026 as we believe we are in the early phases of a major infrastructure investment cycle with significant upside to consensus capital expenditure estimates.

We do not believe we are in an AI bubble.

After a top-heavy 2024, during which the largest technology stocks dominated returns, the market saw a change in leadership in 2025 as the Magnificent Seven and market-cap-weighted technology indices no longer prove as good a conduit for AI. This has led to a richer environment for stock selection, which we expect to persist into 2026.

AI demand is accelerating and outpacing supply despite material AI infrastructure investments – we expect this dynamic to continue into 2026.

Rapid technological change plays to our strength and experience as one of the largest technology investment teams globally, with 11 dedicated portfolio managers/analysts. Eight years managing a dedicated AI fund has also shaped our investment perspective and focus while giving us invaluable insights.

We are excited about the application of AI within our own investment process and intend to use this to further differentiate and ‘turbocharge’ our approach.

While we expect our bullish outlook to be periodically tested by bouts of volatility, we remain AI maximalists. Discontinuous technological progress is difficult to grasp and even harder to predict. AI is advancing at extraordinary speed; we expect 2026 to be the year when the capabilities of these models become unmistakable and the impact of AI increasingly impossible for investors across all sectors to ignore.

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Related Fund

Global Technology
  • None

    Nick Evans

    Nick joined Polar Capital in September 2007. He was appointed lead fund manager of the Global Technology Fund on 1 January 2008, and is also a fund manager on the Polar Capital Technology Trust and the Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund.

    Nick was previously head of technology at AXA Framlington where he was lead fund manager of the AXA Framlington Global Technology Fund and the AWF Framlington Global Technology Fund between August 2001 and July 2007. Both funds were rated five stars by S&P and received several S&P and Lipper performance awards. Nick graduated with a BSc (Hons) in Economics from University of Hull.

  • None

    Ben Rogoff

    Ben joined Polar Capital in May 2003. He is lead manager of Polar Capital Technology Trust plc and is a Fund Manager of the Polar Capital Global Technology Fund and Polar Capital Artificial Intelligence Fund.

    Prior to joining Polar Capital, Ben began his career in fund management at CMI, as a global technology analyst. He moved to Aberdeen Asset Managers in 1998 where he spent four years as a senior technology manager.

All opinions and estimates in this document constitute the best judgement of Polar Capital as of the date hereof, but are subject to change without notice, and do not necessarily represent the views of Polar Capital.  Polar Capital is not rendering legal or accounting advice through this material; viewers should contact their legal and accounting professionals for such information. This document does not constitute a prospectus, offer, invitation or solicitation to buy or sell securities and is not intended to provide the sole basis for any evaluation of the securities or any other instruments, which may be discussed in it. This is not a financial promotion.  Past performance is not indicative of future results.  A list of all recommendations made within the immediately preceding 12 months is available upon request.  This document is not a personal recommendation and you should consider whether you can rely upon any opinion or statement contained in this document without seeking further advice tailored for your own circumstances. This document is only made available to professional clients and eligible counterparties.  Shares in the fund should only be purchased by professional investors.  The law restricts distribution of this presentation in certain jurisdictions; therefore, persons into whose possession this presentation comes should inform themselves about and to observe, all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction. Issued by Polar Capital LLP and Polar Capital (Europe) SAS. Polar Capital LLP is authorised and regulated by the United Kingdom’s Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”) and the United States’ Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). Registered address: 16 Palace Street, London SW1E 5JD. Polar Capital (Europe) SAS is authorised and regulated by France’s Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF). Registered address: 18 Rue de Londres, Paris 75009, France.

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